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Fed cuts split stablecoin and Treasury-fund issuance in 2024; 2025 blurred it

Rahil Bhavan · Oct 17, 2026 · Weekly mints and redemptions of USDC, USDT, PYUSD, BUIDL, OUSG and USDY, January 2023 to Oct 5, 2026

Five issuers, $1T of mints and redemptions on Ethereum. In the Fed's two easing episodes the two largest stablecoins grew faster than their own norm in 2024 (USDC +0.5σ, USDT +0.5σ) while the Treasury-backed funds ran below theirs (BUIDL −0.2σ, OUSG −0.3σ). 2025 only half repeated it: BUIDL fell further (−0.3σ, the weakest window in its history) and USDT stayed above average (+0.4σ), but USDC fell back to average and OUSG recovered. With two episodes, this is a pattern to watch, not evidence of cause.

1. Cumulative net issuance since January 2023, each on its own scale. Shaded: easing episodes; ticks: cuts.

USDC Circle-$20.3B0$35.3B2023202420252026$29.2B
USDT Tether$123.6B2023202420252026$118B
PYUSD PayPal (Paxos)$4.2B2023202420252026$2.9B
BUIDL BlackRock (Securitize)$551M2023202420252026$195.7M
OUSG Ondo-$37.1M$662.7M2023202420252026$598.1M
USDY Ondo-$805$148.5M2023202420252026$148.5M

2. Mean weekly net issuance before and during each easing episode, in standard deviations of the asset's own norm.

12 weeks before the first cutduring the easing episode−1.0σ−0.5σ0.0σ+0.5σ+1.0σUSDC2024USDC, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): +0.1σ in the 12 weeks before ($267.6M/week)USDC, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): +0.5σ during ($707.7M/week), higher than 92% of same-length windows2025USDC, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): +0.8σ in the 12 weeks before ($995.7M/week)USDC, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): −0.0σ during ($103.3M/week), higher than 48% of same-length windowsUSDT2024USDT, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): −0.1σ in the 12 weeks before ($495.6M/week)USDT, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): +0.5σ during ($1.1B/week), higher than 84% of same-length windows2025USDT, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): +0.6σ in the 12 weeks before ($1.2B/week)USDT, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): +0.4σ during ($985.9M/week), higher than 86% of same-length windowsPYUSD2024PYUSD, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): +0.2σ in the 12 weeks before ($40.9M/week)PYUSD, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): −0.2σ during (-$12.6M/week), higher than 20% of same-length windows2025PYUSD, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): +0.1σ in the 12 weeks before ($32.6M/week)PYUSD, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): +0.9σ during ($136.8M/week), higher than 100% of same-length windowsBUIDL2024BUIDL, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): +0.0σ in the 12 weeks before ($3.2M/week)BUIDL, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): −0.2σ during (-$7M/week), higher than 24% of same-length windows2025BUIDL, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): −0.2σ in the 12 weeks before (-$6M/week)BUIDL, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): −0.3σ during (-$11.5M/week), higher than 0% of same-length windowsOUSG2024OUSG, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): −0.2σ in the 12 weeks before ($1.3M/week)OUSG, Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (3 cuts): −0.3σ during (-$2.6M/week), higher than 4% of same-length windows2025OUSG, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): −0.2σ in the 12 weeks before ($657.1K/week)OUSG, Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (3 cuts): +0.0σ during ($5.3M/week), higher than 74% of same-length windowsUSDY2024not issuing yet2025not issuing yet

Mints and redemptions, Ethereum

AssetMintsRedemptionsNet
CircleUSDC$415.6B$438.4B-$22.8B
TetherUSDT$82.8B$26.1B$56.7B
PayPal (Paxos)PYUSD$19B$17.2B$1.8B
BlackRock (Securitize)BUIDL$2.3B$2.1B$195.7M
OndoOUSG$1.3B$747.9M$598.1M
OndoUSDY$215.1M$66.6M$148.5M
Five issuers$521.1B$484.5B$36.6B

Chains. USDC: 62% on Ethereum, 10% Hyperliquid, 9% Solana. USDT: 51% on Tron, 40% Ethereum. Ethereum counts therefore understate Tether's issuance; the net comparison uses supply on every chain.

News. After USDC's March 2023 depeg its supply fell $2.8B a week for four weeks (it had been growing $498.3M a week) while USDT grew $2.1B a week. After the July 2025 GENIUS Act, USDT growth held ($1.2B a week) and USDC slowed ($524M a week to $389.2M a week).

Method. A mint is supply created, a redemption supply destroyed, from each token's Ethereum events (USDC Mint/Burn, USDT Issue/Redeem, PYUSD and BUIDL transfers and issues, OUSG and USDY InstantManager). Circle CCTP transfers ($188.7B) and Paxos's mistaken 300 trillion PYUSD mint are excluded. Net issuance: change in supply on all chains (DefiLlama) for the three stablecoins; Ethereum mints less redemptions for the funds. Easing episodes group FRED target cuts under 120 days apart: Sep 2024 to Dec 2024 (100 bp) and Sep 2025 to Dec 2025 (75 bp); compared with the 12 weeks before.

Limits. Two episodes and six assets: the percentile of each window against all same-length windows is in the chart tooltips (BUIDL 2025: lowest of its windows (0th percentile), USDC 2024: 92th), but windows overlap in time and other drivers moved together. USDC gross volume is mostly market-maker churn (85% of the total). BUIDL mints include about 1% dividend issuance. USDY starts December 2025. Data are dated snapshots; code and definitions at github.com/RahilBhavan/Ondo (docs/METHODOLOGY.md, Pillar 5).